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Subscribe to Likelyhoods, our free newsletter with market news and analysis. Learn how we Think in Likelyhoods.

Thank you for subscribing. New issues are published monthly, and all back issues are available on this webpage.

August 2022
Jason Slowbe 9/20/22 Jason Slowbe 9/20/22

August 2022

IN THIS ISSUE

  1. Inflation Recession

ONE MORE THING...

More disconnects

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JULY 2022
Jason Slowbe 9/20/22 Jason Slowbe 9/20/22

JULY 2022

IN THIS ISSUE

  1. Disconnects

  2. Inverse Cramer Strategy

  3. Crypto crash-o

ONE MORE THING...

A better inflation hedge - I never play the lottery. But if I did… - “Serious Possibility Capital Management”

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June 2022
Jason Slowbe 8/5/22 Jason Slowbe 8/5/22

June 2022

IN THIS ISSUE

  1. When doing nothing adds value

  2. A milestone in the democratization of investing

  3. The best days will come when you least expect them

ONE MORE THING...

Ummm, no - Bad process - Was Cathie Wood lucky? - Robo advisors, Human interests - Janet Yellen had a rough day

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May 2022
Jason Slowbe 6/23/22 Jason Slowbe 6/23/22

May 2022

IN THIS ISSUE

  1. Robinhood Discipline

  2. A different meme stock casualty

  3. Elon joins the active vs passive debate

  4. Elon Proximity Metric revisited

ONE MORE THING...

El-Erian: Thoughtful commentary on the Neutral Rate - El-Erian: Not-so-thoughtful statistical innumeracy - Gas fees - More crypto sinking references - The new Dr. Doom

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April 2022
Jason Slowbe 6/23/22 Jason Slowbe 6/23/22

April 2022

IN THIS ISSUE

  1. Gabe, what the ??!!!

  2. What card counting can teach us about variance

  3. Public Service Announcement - the worst and best days

ONE MORE THING...

Can’t be late - Short-term shorts only please - Think we will see more of this? - Justin Wolfers on peaking inflation

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March 2022
Jason Slowbe 6/23/22 Jason Slowbe 6/23/22

March 2022

IN THIS ISSUE

  1. SPIVA reality check

  2. The Ackman pivot

ONE MORE THING...

Krugman on Russia/Ukraine - Krugman on inflation - There’s an ETF for that - Buybacks are back

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February 2022
Jason Slowbe 6/23/22 Jason Slowbe 6/23/22

February 2022

IN THIS ISSUE

  1. n = 1

  2. Not all volatility is created equal

  3. Pamphlets on Probabilistic Thinking

ONE MORE THING...

Good for market transparency, bad for meme stock short sellers

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January 2022
Jason Slowbe 6/22/22 Jason Slowbe 6/22/22

January 2022

IN THIS ISSUE

  1. Inflation non-hedge

  2. Update: Cash for the next 7 years

  3. My favorite question, chess edition

ONE MORE THING...

Grimacecoins - It's all about (virtual) location location location - Momentum works both ways.

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December 2021
Jason Slowbe 6/22/22 Jason Slowbe 6/22/22

December 2021

IN THIS ISSUE

  1. Where are they now?

  2. The use of “transitory” was, well, transitory

ONE MORE THING...

Insider selling is surging - Football Referee: “Offsides, on the Hedge Funds, 5 yard penalty…” - When “Buy the Dip” no longer works - Buy the Dip, or Buy the Crash? - It’s about performance - “Cashin the Contrarian”

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November 2021
Jason Slowbe 12/31/21 Jason Slowbe 12/31/21

November 2021

IN THIS ISSUE

  1. They underperformed. Again.

  2. What goes up…

  3. More FOMO

ONE MORE THING…

The Case for Patience - Mr. Goxx has died - Mr. Goxx’s obituary - Signal vs Noise - Quiver Quantitative tackles the Elon Markets Hypothesis

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October 2021
Jason Slowbe 12/31/21 Jason Slowbe 12/31/21

October 2021

IN THIS ISSUE

  1. Quick Hits: Inflation

  2. Less is More

ONE MORE THING...

Hyperinflation?? - Taking sides - Maybe I’ll dress up as Investing for Halloween

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September 2021
Jason Slowbe 9/27/21 Jason Slowbe 9/27/21

September 2021

IN THIS ISSUE

  1. Traditional active management is not performing

  2. Insuring Vacuums, Blackjacks, Life, and Volatility

  3. The proverbial, um, hamster?

  4. Inflows

ONE MORE THING...

High allocation to equities - Insider trading should remain illegal, especially for Congress - There’s always reason for concern - Maybe I’ll dress up as Investing for Halloween - What The Rolling Stones can teach us all about investing

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August 2021
Jason Slowbe 9/6/21 Jason Slowbe 9/6/21

August 2021

IN THIS ISSUE

  1. The September Effect

  2. Monte Carlo confidence

  3. He who controls the inputs

  4. Virtual reality

  5. Sore-os

ONE MORE THING...

Shhhhhh-orting - A new normal, P/E edition - ”Natural sellers” vs “Short sellers”

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July 2021
Jason Slowbe 9/6/21 Jason Slowbe 9/6/21

July 2021

IN THIS ISSUE

  1. Conflicting advice on inflation

  2. Got junk?

  3. Loss Aversion is Costly

  4. Warren Buffett’s “Mistake”

ONE MORE THING...

If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em - Reality sets in for AMC - The prescient Jack Bogle

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June 2021
Jason Slowbe 9/6/21 Jason Slowbe 9/6/21

June 2021

IN THIS ISSUE

  1. Inflation Inflation Inflation

  2. Conflicting Advice

  3. When “good performance” still underperforms

ONE MORE THING...

What is value, anyway? - Sorry, not even Congress can stop technology

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May 2021
Jason Slowbe 9/6/21 Jason Slowbe 9/6/21

May 2021

IN THIS ISSUE

  1. High-Quality Shareholders

  2. The Four Ds

ONE MORE THING...

When bad news is good news - Robin Hood vs Buffett - Short interest in SPY is spiking - Inflation is rising

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April 2021
Jason Slowbe 9/6/21 Jason Slowbe 9/6/21

April 2021

IN THIS ISSUE

  1. Which doctor will you choose?

  2. Behind those record inflows

  3. Arche-gone

  4. Shorting Shorting

ONE MORE THING...

Plenty of optimism about this economy - YES!!!!!!!!! GameStop plays to win - “Really below industry standard” - If you’re feeling risk-averse, take up chess

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March 2021
Jason Slowbe 9/6/21 Jason Slowbe 9/6/21

March 2021

IN THIS ISSUE

  1. 17,715%

  2. Luck or Skill?

  3. An Entertaining Disclaimer

ONE MORE THING...

Solid historical and fundamental analysis from Ray Dalio - $30 billion of firepower, now that can move markets

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February 2021
Jason Slowbe 9/6/21 Jason Slowbe 9/6/21

February 2021

IN THIS ISSUE

  1. Degree of Difficulty

  2. A stock picker’s market?

  3. Then what about ETF-picking?

  4. Quick Hits: GameStop

  5. Fortune Tellers, Part II

ONE MORE THING...

“But larger funds lag” - The questionable hindsight of backtesting - If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em - Better for markets: Chiefs or Buccaneers?

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January 2021
Jason Slowbe 9/6/21 Jason Slowbe 9/6/21

January 2021

IN THIS ISSUE

  1. GameSkill

  2. Losing their shorts

  3. Game Theory of GameStop

  4. IsTheSqueezeSquoze

  5. When you are losing to indexing…

  6. A good problem to have

ONE MORE THING...

When the “smart guys” aren’t so smart - “If Goldman Sachs were doing this, it would be called ‘arbitrage’ ” - GameStop, explained in a way that even a 5 year old can understand - Please, please, please, ignore this article - 57 Percent

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Likely Capital Management

Jason Slowbe, Managing Partner

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