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Subscribe to Likelyhoods, our free newsletter with market news and analysis. Learn how we Think in Likelyhoods.

Thank you for subscribing. New issues are published monthly, and all back issues are available on this webpage.

May 2025
Jason Slowbe 5/5/25 Jason Slowbe 5/5/25

May 2025

IN THIS ISSUE

  1. My son likes Trump’s tariffs

ONE MORE THING...

Learn from Dorsey?

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April 2025
Jason Slowbe 4/10/25 Jason Slowbe 4/10/25

April 2025

IN THIS ISSUE

  1. Trump’s political rhetoric meets reality

ONE MORE THING...

No cellphones at the Masters - That’s not how Boards work - The Dollar - watch this space

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March 2025
Jason Slowbe 4/8/25 Jason Slowbe 4/8/25

March 2025

IN THIS ISSUE

  1. Are these tariffs legal?

ONE MORE THING...

How about those Likelyhoods? - Money supply - Keep it simple - Read a poem

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February 2025
Jason Slowbe 2/4/25 Jason Slowbe 2/4/25

February 2025

IN THIS ISSUE

  1. Complacency kills

ONE MORE THING...

Coincidental history - Bitcoin trash - Leveraged consumption

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January 2025
Jason Slowbe 2/4/25 Jason Slowbe 2/4/25

January 2025

IN THIS ISSUE

  1. UPDATE: Pessimism is costly

ONE MORE THING...

If it was easy…

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December 2024
Jason Slowbe 2/4/25 Jason Slowbe 2/4/25

December 2024

IN THIS ISSUE

  1. Which party is better for stocks?

ONE MORE THING...

Elon or Warren? - Pseudo-passive indexing - Yes, valuations are high - Fartcoins. Seriously.

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November 2024
Jason Slowbe 11/6/24 Jason Slowbe 11/6/24

November 2024

IN THIS ISSUE

  1. President-Elect Trump

ONE MORE THING...

Public service announcement - This is what performance-chasing looks like - Markets are broken… so is traditional active management - Seriously? - Be patient

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October 2024
Jason Slowbe 10/10/24 Jason Slowbe 10/10/24

October 2024

IN THIS ISSUE

  1. All polls are wrong, but some are useful

ONE MORE THING...

Risk management for a life portfolio - Flight attendants, prepare for a soft landing

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September 2024
Jason Slowbe 10/10/24 Jason Slowbe 10/10/24

September 2024

IN THIS ISSUE

  1. Be investor-friendly

ONE MORE THING...

There's a Robot Warren Buffet ETF

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August 2024
Jason Slowbe 10/10/24 Jason Slowbe 10/10/24

August 2024

IN THIS ISSUE

  1. Mind the Gap

ONE MORE THING...

Do valuations still matter? - Contradiction! - Warren Buffett's selling concerns investors

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July 2024
Jason Slowbe 10/10/24 Jason Slowbe 10/10/24

July 2024

IN THIS ISSUE

  1. Upsets happen

ONE MORE THING...

Leading or lagging?

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June 2024
Jason Slowbe 7/20/24 Jason Slowbe 7/20/24

June 2024

IN THIS ISSUE

  1. Game On

ONE MORE THING...

Recession is coming. Or is it?

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May 2024
Jason Slowbe 7/20/24 Jason Slowbe 7/20/24

May 2024

IN THIS ISSUE

  1. Dead as a hedge fund

ONE MORE THING...

Lucky vs. Repeatable - Ted Seides wishes he met Dave Ramsey

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April 2024
Jason Slowbe 7/20/24 Jason Slowbe 7/20/24

April 2024

IN THIS ISSUE

  1. Remembering AIEQ

  2. Remembering Munger and Kahneman

ONE MORE THING...

Nonsensical valuation - Hindsight bias

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March 2024
Jason Slowbe 7/20/24 Jason Slowbe 7/20/24

March 2024

IN THIS ISSUE

  1. Insuring Aaron Rodgers

  2. RIP Daniel Kahneman

ONE MORE THING...

This is not news anymore

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February 2024
Jason Slowbe 3/6/24 Jason Slowbe 3/6/24

February 2024

IN THIS ISSUE

  1. Likelyhoods in the Super Bowl

ONE MORE THING...

Is good news actually good news again? - Psychological shorts don’t pay the bills - Shorting is still a tough way to make a buck - Even Warren Buffett

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January 2024
Jason Slowbe 3/6/24 Jason Slowbe 3/6/24

January 2024

IN THIS ISSUE

  1. UPDATE: Go to Cash for 7 year… ooof

ONE MORE THING...

Market forecasting is hard - Short pain - Active vs Passive

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December 2023
Jason Slowbe 12/28/23 Jason Slowbe 12/28/23

December 2023

IN THIS ISSUE

  1. In 2023, pessimism was expensive (again)

ONE MORE THING...

John Henry knows better - Inflation’s tailwind - The Gas Station - PlayStation Indictor

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November 2023
Jason Slowbe 12/28/23 Jason Slowbe 12/28/23

November 2023

IN THIS ISSUE

  1. More investment managers should run marathons

ONE MORE THING...

Why market timing doesn’t work - It pays to wait

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October 2023
Jason Slowbe 12/27/23 Jason Slowbe 12/27/23

October 2023

IN THIS ISSUE

  1. Was it a good decision?

ONE MORE THING...

Law of Large Numbers Tweet Warnings - “Short and Distort” vs. “Meme Stock Mania”

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Likely Capital Management

Jason Slowbe, Managing Partner

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